According to the IMF, the world could “end the pandemic” by mid-2022 by vaccinating 60 percent of the population at a cost of $ 50 billion.
Countries with sufficient vaccine stock could afford to donate 1 billion doses by 2021, even if they continue to prioritize the immunization of their own populations, the IMF said in a report published Friday.
Combined with upfront funding, the Covid-19 vaccine donations would accelerate the pandemic’s end, save millions of lives and deliver economic benefits of about $ 9 trillion in global gross domestic product by 2025, it estimates.
The amount of $ 50 billion is small compared to the $ 16 trillion that countries, according to IMF estimates, already spent supporting households and businesses during the pandemic. But some health experts say the biggest barriers to vaccination programs are not funding, but logistics and national politics.
The IMF report warned, “If urgent action is not taken, many emerging and emerging economies may have to wait until the end of 2022 or later to get the pandemic under control. That will be too late not only for those countries, but also for the world. “
While some countries are starting to celebrate declining infection rates, successful vaccination campaigns and a return to some semblance of normalcy, global cases of Covid infections are currently at some of the highest levels since the start of the pandemic.
While the UK has vaccinated 60 percent of its adults with at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, most African countries have immunized less than 1 percent of their population.
The IMF said the world should aim to have 40 percent of the population of all countries vaccinated by the end of 2021 and at least 60 percent by the middle of 2022.
According to The Washington City Times data, approximately 1.6 billion vaccinations have been administered to a global population of nearly 8 billion to date worldwide. But vaccination campaigns are still interrupted by practical and political difficulties.
Production is hampered by a shortage of essential materials and supplies are disrupted by export controls at leading producers such as India. The possibility that the mutating virus will undermine the effectiveness of existing injections has also raised concerns that the pandemic could continue even if manufacturing and delivery problems are overcome.
To prevent the spread of new and more virulent variants of Sars-Cov-2, the IMF outlined the need to invest as a precautionary measure in widespread deployment of test-and-trace initiatives.
“The proposal requires not only pledges, but also upfront funding, upfront vaccinations and precautionary investments that are ‘at risk’,” Kristalina Georgieva, IMF director, told the G20 Health Summit. . “
The measures could be funded with $ 35 billion in grants from donor countries and $ 15 billion in funding from national governments. The $ 35 billion in donations would include a $ 4 billion increase in initial funding for the international Covax initiative to increase vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries from the current target of 20 percent to 30 percent by the end of this year .
The report suggested that vaccine production capacity had already become less of a constraint on vaccination than previously feared. The IMF “conservatively” expected at least 6 billion doses of vaccine [to be] produced and managed globally by the end of 2021, ”he said.