New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy warned that new coronavirus infections were expected to increase before the start of the summer and potentially set new records, if the state is unable to bring a resurgence in the cases under control.
Updated models from the New Jersey Department of Health predict that in a “moderate case” scenario, 5,445 new infections per day could strike on April 18 and hospital admissions could rise just below 3,000 on the same day. New cases are not expected to fall below 3,000 a day “at the earliest in mid-June, while hospital admissions are said to have declined to just over 1,000 by the end of July.
The high case model predicts that the number of new infections will exceed 8,000 per day by mid-May and then again by mid-June, while hospital admissions are expected to fall within a margin of 3,500 during that period.
According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, an average of 4,400 cases per day occurred in New Jersey for the past week, compared to a record number of 7,877 on Jan. 8.
According to health department data, there are currently 2,463 people in New Jersey hospitals with coronavirus. Hospital admissions reached more than 3,800 on December 23 during the state’s winter rise, but peaked at 8,270 on April 15 last year, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project, when New Jersey was one of those states hit hard during the early stages. of the pandemic in the US.
Murphy reiterated that the predictions were “models, not certainties” and that the results could be improved by behavioral changes and an attempt to “break through and refocus our fatigue.” But the figures cast a shadow on the roll-out of vaccinations in the state which is one of the more advanced states in the country.
According to data from the CDC Wednesday, about a third of New Jersey’s 8.9 million residents have received at least one dose of the vaccine. That is the eighth highest percentage in the US and compares to a state average of 29.8 percent. New Jersey has 18.7 percent of the total population fully vaccinated, the 16th highest in the country and compared to a state average of about 17.4 percent.
The moderate case scenario, modeled by the New Jersey health department, makes several assumptions, including an average vaccine efficacy of 95 percent against all variants. The high-case model assumes a vaccine effectiveness rate of only 65 percent and that people will “lower their guard with the warmer weather.”